The water issue: a strategic weapon against the Kurds?

In antiquity, Iraq was known as Mesopotamia, "between the two rivers", understand the Tigris and the Euphrates. It says how important are those two rivers to the country. But during the summer, their water level reached a critical low, to the point that the Iraqi ministries of water resources and of agriculture qualified the situation as disastrous.
The southern provinces were then facing an unprecedented crisis. Due to lack of drinkable water, the cattle started to die and several villages had to be evacuated. The situation was particularly dire in the south's marshlands, home to the marsh arabs. The water level there was at only 20% of its original level. At the end of august the ministry of water resources was saying that 300000 of the marsh arabs had to leave their dwellings and resettle in nearby towns, straining their already scarce resources.
The pumps of the power stations could not reach the water any more, meaning that the electricity supply was disrupted. The impact was severe on an industry already crippled by years of violence. Nasiriyah, Iraq's fourth largest city, was facing the perspective of a blackout.
But more important were the consequences for agriculture, relying heavily on irrigation. Large swathes of once fertile farmlands are drying and turning into desert. The agriculture ministry was saying that only 40 to 50% of the land devoted to culture could be used. As a result Iraq can't meet the needs of its population and has to import most of its food. Another effect is an increased dependency on the oil-related economy, already around 85% of Iraq's income, making the country highly vulnerable to a crisis.

The causes of this disaster were the poor rainfall of the past years, and the building of dams upstream by the neighbouring countries. On the Euphrates alone, Turkey built five dams, Syria two. Negotiations were held, with mixed results, to have Iran, Turkey and Syria releasing higher volumes of water. But it remains that Iraq's water supply is decided by foreign powers, all of them involved in Iraq's internal politics. Would they feel the need of it, they can actually dry the country.


Kurdistan appeared, at first, to have been spared Iraq's water crisis. Its highlands benefit from more important rainfalls than the rest of Iraq, preserving it from drought. And could the province become Iraq's breadbasket, it would help it in its difficult relations with the central government.
But recently the Kurdistan Regional Government's water resources ministry announced it would carry a common study with Iraq's water resources ministry and the United Nations on drought in Makhmur and Karmayan districts, where water level fell at 60% of its original level.
Will Kurdistan face the same fate than central and southern Iraq?

Of great concern as well is the building in Turkey of a dam at Ilisu. Once the dam will be completed, it will affect Kurdistan water supply. Has this problem been addressed when a Turk delegation made an historical visit in Erbil, Kurdistan's capital, in november? Trade with Turkey represents around 60% of Kurdistan's commercial relations. Petrol exports are going by Turkey as well.
This dam will make the KRG even more dependent from Ankara, which is pursuing its own agenda in Iraq and is cleverly using the antagonism between Kurdistan and the central government. The Turks can ask everything they want from the Kurds: for them to give up their claims on Kirkuk, for them to collaborate against the PKK,... landlocked and isolated, the autonomous Kurdistan won't be in a position to refuse them anything.

And, more, the autonomous Kurdistan may find itself caught in a crossfire would the water dispute between Iraq on one side, and Iran, Turkey and Syria on the other side worsen. In a press conference held the 08/12/2009, the Iraqi government threatened to sever economic ties with Iran and Turkey if they were not showing more cooperation on the water issue.
It is an indirect, but clear menace, against Kurdistan. The province lies on the border with these two countries and survives with the trade made with them. Any fracture of the links between Iraq and its powerful neighbours would suffocate Kurdistan in no time.
A way to make the Kurds aware of their vulnerability ahead of the coming Iraqi national elections, in which some factions are seeing the opportunity, at term, to dispose of the Kurdish demands for a federal state.

Sources = "As Iraq runs dry a plague of snakes is unleashed", P. Cockburn, The Independent 15/06/2009
"Water shortage threatens two million people in southern Iraq", M. Chulov, The Guardian 26/08/2009